Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now being described as a war of “attrition”˳
Western intelligence has suggested Russia may be switching its strategy after failing to meet its initial objectives, more than three weeks after Vladimir Putin first ordered his forces to attack˳
Russia has been surprised by the scale and ferocity of Ukrainian resistance and has been unable to take control of almost all of its key targets˳
Lieutenant General Sir Jim Hockenhull, the UK’s Chief of Defence Intelligence, said: “The Kremlin has so far failed to achieve its original objectives˳
“Russian operations have changed˳ Russia is now pursuing a strategy of attrition˳ This will involve the reckless and indiscriminate use of firepower˳ This will result in increased civilian casualties, destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, and intensify the humanitarian crisis˳”
So what exactly does a war of attrition mean, and how will this affect Ukraine?
What is a war of attrition?
The War of Attrition was a war that took place chiefly between Egypt and Israel between 1969 and 1970, with the aim of dislodging Israeli forces from the Sinai Peninsula˳
However, this is not what is generally meant when people talk about a war of attrition˳
Attrition warfare is a military strategy by which one side attempts to down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and equipment˳
The word attrition comes from the Latin atterere, meaning “to rub against”, so in this context reflects how an army attempts to grind down its opposition˳
Attrition warfare tends to be less strategic and less targeted on key checkpoints˳ It often involves more guerilla warfare (ambushes, sabotage, raids and similar, by smaller groups of attackers) and sometimes even deliberately targets civilians˳
It is more about reducing the enemy’s resources to unsustainable levels than trying to take over cities or military bases, while keeping your own losses manageable˳
The First World War saw both sides adopt attrition strategies on the Western Front, which resulted in huge numbers of deaths without gaining a strategic result˳
In modern times, attrition warfare was used during the Syrian civil war, in which Russia played a significant role˳
More on Russia-Ukraine war
What is going to happen in Ukraine?
A Western official said on Friday: “When you look at look at a map, and you look at areas of control it’s easy to think perhaps that the last two weeks have seen a stalemate and not much happen˳ But, of course, there’s been some pretty ferocious fighting that’s been going on in those areas that are contested, and that has the impact of forcing the Russians to change their approach˳
“It’s forced them to have to reorganise and regroup some of their assets in order to be able to to move things˳”
The invading military is running out of “precision and high-value weapon systems”, the official said, meaning Mr Putin’s troops are likely to resort to “dumb munitions” which are more likely miss their targets and kill civilians˳
Russia has already been accused of war crimes for targeting civilians during its invasion, including by striking hospitals and schools˳
The UN has confirmed 902 civilian casualties, but warned the actual toll is likely to be much higher˳
Michael Clarke, former head of the British-based defence think tank Royal United Services Institute, said: “Unless the Russians intend to be completely genocidal – they could flatten all the major cities, and Ukrainians will rise up against Russian occupation – there will be just constant guerrilla war˳”
An assessment by the nonpartisan nonprofit, Institute for the Study of War, published on Saturday, read: “The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready˳ The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach˳
“It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive˳
“We assess that that effort will fail˳”
