Libya, North Africa
The Libyan Civil War is a consequence of the power vacuum created following the death of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, in 2011˳ The power shift presented an opportunity for former oppressed moderate and extremist factions to challenge each other for power˳
Following Gaddafi’s death, Libya has been divided into spheres of influence by different groups and entities˳ A UN-backed government resides in Tripoli, whereas the UN-recognised parliament is based in Tobruk˳ General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), has consistently vowed to take the Capital, Tripoli˳ General Haftar and his LNA, subsequently, has military strongholds in Benghazi and eastern Libya˳ The Tobruk Parliament, also called the House of Representative (HoR) and the Tripoli Government, have been in a diplomatic stalemate since 2014 due to changing agendas of the Tripoli government’s militia˳ Henceforth, the two governmental bodies operate separately notwithstanding agreeing to several peace agreements˳ The HoR runs despite the Libyan Supreme Court’s ruling in 2014 that claimed elections were unconstitutional and thus, stressed that the legislative body should be dissolved˳ Despite this, the US, EU, and the UAE, have recognised the Tobruk-based parliament as legitimate˳
The HoR has historically strengthened its relationship with General Khalifa by installing him as the head of the military˳ This complicated negotiations when General Khalifa’s forces, the LNA and other militias loyal to him, were conducting campaigns to allegedly liberate Tripoli from the UN-backed government˳ Currently, the renegade General has succeeded to gain large swathes of territory under his control˳ France attempted to bring together the Tripoli-based Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj and General Khalifa to the negotiation table in another attempt to stabilize Libya, but despite agreements, no substantial gains have been made˳
In addition to fighting among each other, these parties are also battling with extremist forces within the country who want a replacement for Gaddafi˳ The former UN-backed government, the General National Congress/Council (GNC), which still influences the current UN-backed government, the Government of National Accord (GNA), has backing from a coalition of secular and Islamist militias known as Libya Dawn˳ The Libyan Dawn and General Khalifa are allied groups with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and al-Qaida˳ Recently, Libyan youth prefer to follow ISIS, thus, al-Qaida-allied groups are increasingly disbanding˳ The combined pressure from groups allied to the UN-backed Tripoli government and General Khalifa’s forces have resulted in monumental gains against the Islamic State in Libya˳
The EU and the UN have been supporting peace negotiations in Geneva in 2020˳ Italy and France have invested in Libya since they believe if Libya is stable, it will reduce the number of migrants crossing the sea from Africa to Europe via Libya˳ Additionally, both countries have oil companies there, thus they are fighting for their economic interests˳ France is supporting the UN-backed Tripoli government while ‘undermining’ the peace process by supporting General Khalifa militarily˳ Because Italy and France are part of the UN Mission in Libya, the UN efforts have been limited˳
In November 2020 the UN attempted to progress peace talks through the election procedure by inviting 75 delegates from the country’s two rival assemblies as well as some handpicked independents to Tunis˳ The following discussion attempted to agree on an election procedure˳ The conference failed to make significant ground, so in January the UN convened a 18-delegate Advisory Committee who eventually agreed on a proposed procedure˳ The 18 delegates then submitted the proposal to the wider 75 group who voted and passed it˳ The mechanism divides the 75 forum members into three constituencies based on Libya’s three historical regions (Tripolitania in the west, Cyrenaica in the east and Fezzan in the south)˳ The groups would elect a regional representative to the Presidency Council˳ Separately, the 75 forum members will elect the Prime Minister, who will need to win at least 70 per cent of their votes˳
This power struggle has perpetuated a culture of violence and caused a humanitarian crisis˳ This crisis prevents civilians from accessing infrastructure, good health, quality education, stable electricity, consistent water, durable food security, and job security˳ All these have had severe impacts on the economy, oil production, law enforcement, and the justice system˳ Until the government factions concede power to one internationally and nationally recognised government, the war will not end˳ Litlle progress has been made in the UN-led negotiations throughout early and mid 2022˳ Sources of income including oil and gas fields remain closed as a result, which is increasing tensions and national instability˳
