I’m going to make a few predictions based on what I’ve seen happening this week in the eBook marketplace˳ As with any type of prognostication, I probably have a 50-50 chance of being wrong˳ But guessing about the future, particularly in the fast-paced realm of technology, is my kind of fun˳
First off, how do you spell ebook? Or is it e-book? Newspapers like the NY Times use the hyphen, and trendy rulebreakers don’t˳ I’m betting with the trendy rulebreakers because, hey, they’re the rulemakers of tomorrow (which is next week)˳
The event that more than anything got me heated up about the pre-Christmas hype for e-readers (hyphen here for readability?) was an ad I saw on on TV just two nights ago for the Sony Reader˳ Now, this device has been on the market for a couple of years˳ It was one of the first of its type, predating the Amazon Kindle˳ But Sony’s strategy was apparently to promote it first mainly to scholars and librarians, taking print ads in some of the snobbier journals˳ I complained in my blog, even back then, that Sony was preaching to the choir and wasting its lead time by not addressing consumers directly˳ I wanted to see a billboard campaign with some glitzy, techno counterpart to silhouettes of dancers jumping around wearing white earbuds˳
And I was mystified that Apple seemed to be ignoring that market deliberately˳ In fact, I was appalled when Steve Jobs reportedly remarked that kids don’t read anymore, so no point in launching a reader˳ I hoped that was clever disinformation, much as I dislike the use of disinformation in any form, for any reason˳ (You can read ebooks on an iPhone using various third-party apps˳ I don’t think that’s a core strategy for Apple, though˳)
So I did a bit of data drilling on the Sony ad and discovered that people reported seeing it as early as last month (August 2009) in some regional markets˳ I live in the Los Angeles area, and I’d never seen it˳ But this limited exposure last month seems to me like test marketing˳ I would bet that now, post-Labor-Day and pre-holiday, you’ll see that ad a lot, on all major networks, broadcast and cable, and nationwide˳
Personally, I think the ad sucks, depicting a panel of experts (some/all actors), who are touting the thing˳ One claims to be the world-champion speed-reader, and I bet he actually is˳ But gyrating pop-icon silhouettes, they’re not˳ Once again, Sony is pitching the geeks˳ (I count myself as a geek so don’t think I’m disparaging my peers˳ It’s just that we’re not the majority of the population or everyone in the U˳S˳ would have had Medicare years ago˳)
Add to this portentous development the related evidence that Philips iRex is now being launched in a venture with Best Buy and Verizon, as reported in yesterday’s NY Times˳ The iRex reads the open-source EPUB format˳ Sony recently announced that the Reader would soon support that format, as well, along with its proprietary LRF format and Adobe PDF˳ One big difference is that EPUB books typically the lack digital rights management (DRM) electronic copying restrictions imposed by LRF, Amazon Kindle, and some Adobe PDF versions˳
For my part, I decided to join the club and beefed up my membership and presence on eBook distribution service Smashwords˳com, which supports EPUB and LRF, as well as lots of the other formats˳ I’m thinking a big consideration for eBook buyers should be the long-term cost of buying content˳ Prices of ebooks vary widely, but many Amazon Kindle versions are advertised at just under ten bucks˳ Lots of Smashwords EPUB versions range from free to a buck or two, although bestsellers typically cost more˳ Then too, there’s the public domain library offered by Project Gutenberg, where everything is both free and about a hundred years old˳ But if you’re looking for Charles Dickens rather than Dan Brown, you can find him and thousands of other famous authors there in EPUB, HTML, and “plain-text” formats˳
It looks as though the Sony Reader Pocket Edition is priced lowest among its competitors, but it lacks wireless connectivity˳ Perhaps that’s no big deal and the price point is the crucial factor˳ Other Sony Reader models, as well as the Kindle and the iRex, have built-in wireless (with bundled service), which I’m guessing is the main reason for the price differential˳
All this will change, probably by the time I click the Submit button to post this article˳
And what about Apple? Can we expect an announcement any day? I’m betting on a plug-in tablet-sized screen as an accessory to the existing iPods˳ Years ago, I saw a “leaked” YouTube slide presentation on such a device, as though it had been prepared for an Apple development team briefing˳ Whether the video clip was bogus or not, the concept makes perfect sense, both technically and commercially˳ The iPhone is a handy reader, but I wouldn’t read a novel on it˳
And I also thought Amazon’s strategy to introduce the larger-format Kindle 3 into the college textbook model was a brilliant move–into a market niche you’d think Sony would have owned by then˳
I don’t know whether it means anything, but I can’t find that leaked Apple video on YouTube anymore…
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